Jon Johnson
In 1998, InvestmentHouse.com teamed up with Chief Market Strategist Jon Johnson. Subsequently, InvestmentHouse.com began publishing the Stock Split Report, Technical Trader Report, The Daily and the IH Alert service. Mr. Johnson has been a guest on CNBC-TV, Bloomberg TV, Houston's 650 Business Radio and his newsletters have been featured in various financial articles, including articles in the Washington Post, Chicago Sun, The Wall Street Journal's Smart Money Magazine, Bloomberg, Kiplinger Personal Finance Magazine, Houston Chronicle, Business Week, Money Magazine and other news magazines. Mr. Johnson's Stock Split Report was featured in Forbes.com's Best of The Web online edition.
SUMMARY:
- Greece deal reached, Greece gets its second bailout installment. Much rejoicing.
- Gold pricing in inflation, Oil pricing in Iran and breaks out.
- Home Depot earnings provide hope for housing or is it just a hot flash?
- Saks earnings nice, Wal-Mart not so nice. The classic turn in retail.
- Some buy on close orders for a change.
- Dow hits 13,000 briefly as the indices move higher, but the move is surely slow, not as exciting, and harder to find ways in.
- Last hour rebound shows the bids are still there but harder for the market to get lathered up.
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SUMMARY:
- Stocks overcome minor selling attempts on the week, post gains along with some new post-bear market highs.
- Still feels as if you have the tiger by the tail, but thus far the tiger has not tried to swat us.
- Gallup puts Unemployment at 19.2% as CBO tells us long-term unemployed still at 40%, where they were in 2009.
- Philly Fed forecasting 30K jobs created in February. Why won’t people hire?
- CPI ‘lighter’ trumpet the headlines, but the core is hot and getting hotter: beware gasoline prices.
- Sticking with what is working but the ranks of quality new plays are growing thinner.
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SUMMARY:
- Bids not out of the market but they needed some help Thursday.
- Have liquidity, will rise: ECB following the US’ steps in liquidity 1-2-3, world markets gain.
- PPI comes in hot, but it does not matter, right?
- Jobless claims continue their trajectory of improvement.
- June Housing Starts rise more than expected.
- Philly Fed manufacturing rises edges expectations, posts solid gain.
- Sell on close orders again, but thus far not inhibiting the market move.
- There are problems to watch for, but only to watch for at this juncture.
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SUMMARY:
- Stronger start, no follow through, and even a reversal in some key names.
- Weak but not as weak as expected EU GDP propped up by China promise to give money.
- New York regional PMI solid, Production and Capacity solid as well.
- Homebuilder confidence hits a 4 year high. Do you trust the used car salesmen of the housing industry?
- When you believe 2.9% GDP growth is a good thing, 5.2% to 6% unemployment is full employment, and growing the deficit by $5T is a good cut of spending, you have problems. In short, the US has problems.
- Trips to support increasing in frequency.
- More downside plays are setting up and providing good risk/reward potential. That tells a lot of the market story in itself.
- Remain vigilant and reasonable in expectations as the pullback looks to be taking root.
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SUMMARY:
- What do you know, there may not be a Greece austerity agreement after all.
- US stocks struggle all session, then in the last half hour stage a furious rebound back to flat.
- January Retail Sales half expectations due to auto sales. But are not auto sales jumping?
- December Business inventories rise in line, sales rise as well: no goods piling up unwanted.
- NFIB Small Business Confidence rises again, hanging on but showing some cracks.
- Late rebound a sign buyers are still there or a sign buyers are growing thin?
SUMMARY:
- Greek austerity agreement, Greek bondholder agreement, positive Italian bond sale allay investors’ Friday fears and markets rally.
- Negatives are not worrying investors for now: higher gas prices, Japan’s incredible shrinking economy offset by increasing optimism.
- Optimism too high? Barron’s cover touts Dow 15K, golden crosses (no, not talking about the Catholic contraception controversy) dominate technical discussions, and television traders say pull your shorts (not those shorts).
- Insiders selling heavily.
- Chips are not down but are rather suddenly struggling.
- Obama budget cuts an alleged and illusory $4T but even if true still leaves the deficit growing by $5T.
- Bad time to cut spending? What about bad spending such as corruption and waste inside the government that benefits no one?
- Sentiment may be high but the market keeps setting up new stocks and those stocks keep finding buyers.
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Watch Next Session Video
The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Economy Summary, Technical Summary, and the Next Session. This allows you to choose the segments you are interested in without having to find the segment in a longer video. Click on the link to the portion you wish to view.
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SUMMARY:
- Finally a Greek deal. Where is the parade? That is Friday in the tear gas induced haze in the streets of Greece.
- Stocks show the old low to high again.
- Jobless claims still improving as continuing claims bump higher in a bit of a peace offering by the statisticians after last week’s jobs report.
- Wholesale inventories predictably rise.
- The market rise is now akin to holding a tiger by the tail. Go with him until he figures out you are there and tries to swat you.
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SUMMARY:
- Little news and the indices show the low to high action yet again.
- Earnings appear improving after a mid-season dry patch.
- A Greek deal is imminent, again.
- Dependency Programs consuming evermore of our funds.
- Earnings continue to push stocks, but with no resultant major upside moves in the indices, stay aware.
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SUMMARY:
- Stock indices add just modest gains, but the action once again is the positive low to high move.
- DJ30 joins NASDAQ and SP600 in breaking through the prior bear market highs.
- Bernanke dismisses the jobs report more than we expected.
- Bernanke’s adherence to his dovish ways thumps the dollar and bounces gold.
- Bumping the highs, still good patterns, but watching the door.
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SUMMARY:
- A boring Monday, but after breaking to new highs, a good Monday.
- Not much news to drive the market and it doesn’t go anywhere.
- Economics upping their outlook for the US economy now that the indices are hitting new highs. The timing is about right and suggests to keep an eye open for a pullback.
- Not much money moving into the market, but with low volumes, it does not take much to move stocks.
- So far another very orderly, easy test with no signs of a more severe rollover.
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SUMMARY:
- Jobs beat expectations, provide additional strength to the rally.
- As DJ30 knocks on the door, NASDAQ, SP600 kick the son of a (expletive) in and break to post-bear market highs.
- There are no doubt more jobs, but just how many and what quality? A look into the manipulation of the internal numbers providing the results.
- January ISM shows strong employment gains in the midst of a banking layoff binge.
- Factory orders quietly slip in December, matching the decline in other data, but no one cares as all eyes are on the lagging jobs data.
- Iran preparing a 6,000 mile range ‘Great Satan’ missile. No, we don’t need a missile defense system in the ‘modern’ era of terrorist warfare.
- More upside or time for a test? At least the indices are dealing more from a position of strength.
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SUMMARY:
- Growth leads toward the 2011 highs while SP500, DJ30 stall.
- Jobless claims continue their modest improvement.
- Productivity stalling, perhaps adding to need to hire.
- January Same Store Sales mixed and overall lower.
- Bernanke makes a shocking prediction.
- Indices start to bump the highs but stocks with room to run are still running.
- Beware of a run higher on the jobs report: will bids hold on more good news right at the old highs?
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SUMMARY:
- After a short pause stocks continue the move toward the 2011 highs.
- US data, earnings again not stellar, but with the perception of EU action they are good enough to support the market move.
- China, EU PMI numbers top expectations.
- US ISM rises, though less than expected.
- ADP jobs miss expected mark.
- NASDAQ moves through its February peak, the initial high in the 2011 top, but SP500 falls short.
- Wednesday is not a breakout, but there is still room to move.
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SUMMARY:
- Stocks give up an early move, but then recover to flat once again, preserving SP500′s best January in 14 years.
- Europe working on it, but there are the strong and the weak.
- US data continues on its recent weakening kick.
- Case/Shiller continues to fade.
- Chicago PMI still solid but misses expectations
- Consumer Confidence wanes, misses expectations by a significant margin.
- SP500, SP600 still have room to the upside, but still not expecting a breakout from this move.
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SUMMARY:
- Europe rears up, US spending trails off. Stocks sell but again come back from the lows.
- Portugal debt instruments not looking healthy, Greece-like debt restructuring attempt likely.
- US December spending data corroborates Friday GDP report
- Market taking a pause, sporting good intraday action, but no need to get in a hurry.
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SUMMARY:
- GDP tries to stymie the rally, but stocks recover in the afternoon.
- Still bumping the highs, still not breaking through.
- GDP at 2.8% is inflated by inventories adding almost 2 points to the total. This is recovery? Anyone could get this result by flooding the economy with dollars.
- GDP internals tell why Bernanke downplayed the economy Wednesday.
- Consumer Sentiment continues to improve thank goodness.
- Dollar struggles (where is the strong dollar mantra?), bonds rally on Fed action, economic data.
- Leaders rallied Friday but the market is not done selling as tops, even for near term tests, take a bit of time to form.
- Can make money but now our game plan has to change with the indices at the prior highs.
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SUMMARY:
- A great start, but even with CAT adding to AAPL and the FOMC decision, the market cannot hold the gain.
- DJ30 brushes the post-bear market high then reverses.
- Durable Goods Orders post another solid gain.
- Jobless claims up, but with the trend lower.
- Market indicates it is at its news saturation point and readies for a test.
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SUMMARY:
- Many bemoan a weak session, but the intraday action was constructive as investors and traders awaited AAPL’s earnings.
- Apple blows out earnings and tops guidance. Solid after hours response, but is it enough to push a new upside charge to resistance?
- For the first time in awhile an FOMC meeting has some meaning.
- Plenty of good patterns still in the market versus resistance ahead and the idea of just how much better can the news get after AAPL.
- Stick to the plan at this point as it has worked thus far.
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SUMMARY:
- GOOG has its impact but the flat close was not bad action all things considered.
- DJ30 leads as MSFT, IBM, INTC rally on earnings.
- Existing home sales up 5%, but still distressed and cash sales.
- Expecting some more upside then the test.
- Three options for the test to come.
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SUMMARY:
- No bad news from Europe, US earnings palatable, and stocks, well, just manage a gain.
- Big upside open cannot hold to the close. Of to lunch for that matter.
- Earnings focus on financials to start the week and they are mixed
- New York PMI shows manufacturing recovery continues.
- Stocks still in position, looking for more upside, looking for earnings to provide a catalyst.
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SUMMARY:
- France spills the beans early on an S&P downgrade and the market takes its licks.
- Stocks sell but once again they recover off the lows with the low to high intraday action. If S&P action occurred a couple of months back we would be talking about Black Friday part 2.
- JPM disappoints but the reaction in the stock and financials is minimally negative.
- Michigan Sentiment posts a nice January bounce.
- Europe has its reasons for backing off its Iranian oil embargo plans. What are our reasons for not taking Canada’s oil, producing our own, creating thousands of jobs, giving people incomes to buy homes given low rates, and lowering the price of oil and gasoline?
- Earnings and economic data for the short week ahead, and still we see plenty of upside patterns that we will take advantage of if they show the moves.
- S&P downgrade portend an EU recovery? When S&P downgraded the US our economy rebounded.
- Quantitative Easing III likely on the way: it is an election year, Bernanke knows which side will preserve his job, and his henchmen are laying the groundwork.
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SUMMARY:
- U.S. economic data stumbles and stocks give up pre-market move then fight to hold gains.
- Jobless claims jump back to 399K.
- December retail sales show a late tail off in holiday shopping.
- Business inventories rise much less than expected as sales fall as well: the inventory build still remains elusive.
- Spain holds a decent bond auction, Draghi says the EU dodged a bullet.
- Grain supplies up, prices down, better for consumer.
- Home Depot to hire 70,000.
- Low to high intraday action continues the overall positive bias.
- Three-day weekend and earnings face the current rally.
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SUMMARY:
- Once again a good move is followed by . . . lethargy.
- Stocks recover from early declines, indicating the upside bias is still there, but the upside move remains slow going.
- MSFT the latest to join the list of those concerned about the quarter.
- Money is moving into the downtrodden as well as the favorites, and perhaps that can help this rally get a move on.
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SUMMARY:
- SP500 finally gets the right signals to make the upside break.
- Improvement in the US data was not enough: it took the appearance of a reversal in China to give the buyers the nod.
- French business confidence bounces along with industrial output.
- US short term auction yields record demand. ‘Stuff’ may be getting better, but investors still seek safety.
- A good day but not a great day.
- With the SP500 upside break the stage is set for the next phase of the rally, but given all the hype a bit of test may come first.
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SUMMARY:
- Creeping upside, still sluggish. Waiting on earnings for the next move?
- Short-term German bond yields turn negative as Europeans seek safety of German, US debt.
- Consumer Credit expands again as US consumer appears, repeat appears, to be on the comeback trail.
- US debt now matches US economic output.
- SOX is trying to provide backup for the other indices that remain in position to break higher, but just have yet to do it.
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SUMMARY:
- A solid jobs report reflects the economic improvement, but stocks did not buy into it, at least on Friday.
- Rare revisions to the unemployment rate, the simple are you employed or not survey, raises eyebrows and questions about data accuracy and perhaps explains the market’s lukewarm response.
- Dollar and bonds still acting as a safe haven for European funds.
- Stocks close the week with a flat session, unable to build upon the Tuesday, start of the year rally.
- Boat show indicator starts to turn positive but job cuts in 2012 are already high.
- Market still sports many levels of positive patterns supporting a continued move toward the prior highs.
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SUMMARY:
- Stocks still pensive even with some very solid, credible US economic data.
- Europe still a cloud cover over the US, but Friday’s jobs report likely had a bit to do with the sluggish action.
- Modest gains yes, but once again very constructive intraday action.
- Jobless claims beat expectations.
- ADP at 325K blows away the 180K anticipated.
- Same Store Sales rise 3.3% with some great beats AND some pretty surprising misses.
- Dollar, bonds start acting as they should with an improving US economy.
- Growth stocks quickly move into the lead Thursday.
- Jobs report could break this next move free and up into the last range before the post-bear market highs.
- Plenty of stocks still showing up and looking to pitch in to lead higher.
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SUMMARY:
- Stocks idle, a bit hung over after the new year surge.
- No major news, stocks quiet, so blame Europe.
- November Factory Orders up though miss expectations.
- Greenspan getting to the point, talks of a ‘brick wall of economic reality’ ahead for the US.
- Metals, energy, materials, financials, machinery and more. Leaders are there and likely will need to take over from retailers after Thursday’s Same Store Sales results.
- Earnings starting to show up as STX pre-releases positive results
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SUMMARY:
- Lackluster session then late selling send SP500 negative for 2011.
- DJ30 and SP600 face new year trying to lead a continuation of the rally.
- Earnings can keep the upside move alive, then kill it as investors ask ‘is that all?’
- Predictions? Europe will remain an issue, North Korea and Iran are more trouble, no real US rally despite election year, more economic issues, blah blah, blah. Watch the market, be aware of history, and take what the market gives.
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SUMMARY:
- Another upside though rather nondescript advance continues the recovery.
- Jobless claims continue to improve, hitting the lowest reading since April 2008
- Michigan Sentiment marks fourth straight gain on the final read.
- LEI down but tops expectations.
- Q3 GDP revision misses expectations.
- Payroll firms indicate small businesses still slow.
- Santa rally is producing the advance and it is nice, but keep a dose of reality.
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SUMMARY:
- Earnings and European bank borrowing rattle traders, but the market, most of it at least, recovers.
- European banks borrowing more than thought, following the US model.
- Mortgage applications fall but November existing home sales rise. Is the housing market really recovering?
- Volatility still reigns but stocks continue trying higher.
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SUMMARY:
- Range? What range? SP500 turns and rallies through the August high.
- Some modest improvements in Europe, better housing starts in the US, basically nothing really that great, but stocks surge to the upside.
- Broad rally bounces DJ30 and SP600 off the top of their range, sends SP500 out of its range. Now can or will NASDAQ and SOX follow.
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SUMMARY:
- Another early rally is squandered as SP500, NASDAQ fail to break back out of the Eurozone range.
- US data, European bonds look better on the week but a Fitch ratings move Friday afternoon overrides the positives.
- Longer term patterns still pointing toward danger in 2012.
- SP500, NASDAQ still need to break out of the EZ (Eurozone), but many stocks look ready to support a breakout near term.
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SUMMARY:
- Solid US data tries to provide stocks a rally cause but the bid fades and the indices close basically flat.
- No negatives from Europe and even some good bond sales in Spain.
- Manufacturing data rises on optimism about the future.
- Jobless claims get serious, fall to 366K.
- Foreclosures fall to 3 year low.
- Production and Capacity are good enough.
- China markets still struggling.
- Expiration Friday likely not to appreciably change the lay of the land, but we could get some buys out of it.
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SUMMARY:
- Looming specter of Europe continues to weigh on US stocks, advance dollar and treasuries.
- Italian bond auction results in record yields as UK unemployment touches a 17 year high.
- BRCM turns the tables and actually ups its Q4 guidance.
- SP500 joins NASDAQ and SOX in the stock ‘Eurozone’.
- SP500 10 points from support. A further test makes it four days down and a bounce for a key test of the range likely.
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SUMMARY:
- Indices bounce off the trading range, fade ahead of the FOMC decision, then get pretty ugly afterward.
- No Europe on the headlines but it sure appeared as if a European issue was in the background as dollar and bonds surge.
- November Retail sales disappointing, but some price drops are part of the decline.
- FOMC leaves everything status quo as should have been expected.
- SP500 and NASDAQ cracking the top of their ranges. DJ30, SP600 look just fine. SOX, however, is a problem.
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SUMMARY:
- Second thoughts on the European deal, Moody’s downgrade threat, another chip warning (Intel), and more China slowing.
- After bouncing from the top of the prior range the indices are right back to test it again.
- Down on bad news yes, but once more the indices find and bounce, albeit modestly, off of that August to October range.
- Plenty of gloom and worry, a perfect cover for a bounce attempt.
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SUMMARY:
- Doesn’t take much of a European deal to satisfy investors and traders.
- A string of earnings warnings is worrisome, but not for stocks, at least not yet.
- China industrial output slows further.
- Michigan Sentiment approaching 70.
- Moody’s cuts the big French banks.
- Despite the negatives, Europe trumps and stocks rally nicely, pushing the indices up off an important support level.
- The bid returned on Friday. If it is still there Monday the prospects for a further upside push firm considerably
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SUMMARY:
- Stock market is putting in constructive sessions ahead of EU meeting.
- ECB providing an extended, 2 year loan facility, reports have G20 putting up $600B for IMF Europe fund. France promises a ‘powerful’ deal. Promises, promises.
- Germans less confident of a deal, S&P goes all in, putting EU itself and EU banks on negative credit watch.
- After 235 years we are told our system does not work.
- Many stocks working on new setups, but of course they are relying on some form of real deal from Europe.
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SUMMARY:
- Rather boring session is still constructive for more upside . . . if Europe comes through.
- Once again Europe gets things going upside, S&P tries to stall it, then more European news helps boost stocks again.
- Earnings outlooks continue to come in mixed as MMM meets, DRI misses.
- Christmas tree sales up but first week of December sees sales drop 2.6%.
- Leaders already moving laterally and consolidating the prior move while the indices are starting to do the same.
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SUMMARY:
- Europe helps start a second week higher but Europe almost kills off the day’s rally as well.
- Italian austerity proposals spark no riots, heartening investors.
- Standard & Poor’s communication to the EU nations placing them all on negative watch gets leaked and the market gains leak as well.
- Online sales post a strong initial week.
- ISM Services miss but good enough to keep the expansion
- China Services PMI lower but as with the US, holds to the expansion.
- October Factory orders negative and September is revised to negative.
- Still bumping next resistance, but after a big move the past week a bit of testing is just fine.
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SUMMARY:
- Stocks initially rally on Europe, jobs report, but by session’s end the trade went flat.
- Jobs are slowly following the economic improvement higher.
- Jobs report appears better but more people left the workforce than found jobs.
- Near term the European bid is a positive, but some head and shoulders patterns are not pleasing for the upside longer term.
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SUMMARY:
- Some good news, some bad news, but stocks are just too tired to rally regardless.
- European bond auctions termed a success.
- China PMI contracts for the first time in three years.
- Jobless claims back over 400K.
- US PMI handily tops expectations.
- Same Store Sales good enough.
- The pattern this week is surge and rest. If the jobs report is pleasing Friday the market would be due another surge.
- Despite US improvement, Europe is still the gatekeeper.
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SUMMARY:
- A flailing Europe gets a first installment of aid as its banks receive a US-led lifeline.
- Stock markets that looked ready to roll over surge on the prospect of even more excess liquidity.
- China joins in as well, cutting reserve requirements for the first time in three years.
- ADP jobs report jumps over 200K.
- Chicago PMI surges back above 60.
- Easier swap and credit lines are likely just the first step in the new bailout, and that may keep the Wednesday bid under stocks.
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SUMMARY:
- Holiday sales open big, helping trigger a big oversold bounce.
- Stocks take back what was sold off during the Wednesday and Friday worries over Europe.
- SP500 and NASDAQ bounce back from the middle of the August/October range. Room to run, but not that much.
- Fitch lowers US debt outlook to negative.
- Will the stocks that refused to break down now lead back upside?
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SUMMARY:
- Stocks attempt an oversold bounce but the bids are not enough to turn the market.
- A new IMF ‘precautionary fund’ is not enough to satisfy investors.
- Q3 GDP revision downgrades the growth.
- Spanish 3 month bonds require 5+% yield to attract buyers.
- Stocks look sluggish ahead of Thanksgiving, and even a ‘traditional’ move higher would have to be a heck of a move to make a difference for the upside.
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SUMMARY:
- Debt Commission failure diverts attention, momentarily, from Europe, but the effect is the same.
- Stocks sell hard, manage to bounce off the lows as NASDAQ holds some support, but it will take more than holding support.
- Moody’s eyeing France for a downgrade.
- US bond sale garners highest demand ever as US house is the best on a bad block.
- October Existing Home Sales 1.4%, reversing 3.2% September decline.
- Gold sells as stocks dive: liquidating for gains to offset margin calls.
- Stocks down but even so many quality stocks still holding nice patterns. Interesting carrot for the upside, but they have to show they can make the moves.
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SUMMARY:
- Not much of a relief bounce from the Wednesday and Thursday selling, certainly not recovering NASDAQ’s and SP500′s patterns.
- Europe bounces on ECB bond buying but it now appears Germany is not going to go along with any ECB bailout.
- US data continued up for the week but thus far it is not enough to hold the market higher in the face of EU issues.
- The ties between stimulus spending and MF Financial’s collapse.
- Some key breakdowns but also many stocks minding their own business.
- Small caps, DJ30 trying to hold the line for SP500 and NASDAQ, but if the market is going to resume the upside it has to overcome the odds.
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SUMMARY:
- Thursday was not that bad, but on top of Wednesday it was just piling on.
- SP500, NASDAQ break lower from their pennant patterns. Now any upside is in the Missouri mentality: show me
- US economic data continues its decent performance, but earnings guidance and debt issues in Europe overrun the buyers.
- Jobless claims below 400K again.
- Housing starts down, but just a fraction of what was expected.
- Philly Fed hangs onto positive in November though it missed its expectations.
- Expiration may be playing a role, but regardless, the indices now have to show us they can rebound and continue the upside move.
- Still some very good looking stocks, but will they hold and pull the rest higher or will they be dragged lower?
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