I continue to get questions as the reason behind the current run for the roses in the stock market. What about Greece, they ask. Aren’t there huge problems with the bailout deal that was finally arranged on Tuesday? What if the private bond holders don’t go along with the debt swap? Isn’t there a risk that the Germans won’t approve the deal? And won’t we eventually see a default? What about the rest of Europe? And what about those big problems in Portugal? And on and on and…
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SUMMARY:
- Greece deal reached, Greece gets its second bailout installment. Much rejoicing.
- Gold pricing in inflation, Oil pricing in Iran and breaks out.
- Home Depot earnings provide hope for housing or is it just a hot flash?
- Saks earnings nice, Wal-Mart not so nice. The classic turn in retail.
- Some buy on close orders for a change.
- Dow hits 13,000 briefly as the indices move higher, but the move is surely slow, not as exciting, and harder to find ways in.
- Last hour rebound shows the bids are still there but harder for the market to get lathered up.
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One of the great things about the stock market game is that it is always changing. Just about the time your ego tells you that you’ve got the game licked – boom – the game changes completely. One minute you may be on top of the world calling every wiggle and giggle in the market perfectly and the next, well, you’re wondering why on earth your account is red when the market is sporting a big green number. And although I’ve said this a time or twenty over the past few years, THIS is why I prefer a systems-driven approach over the subjective, manager discretion approach to managing the market.
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SUMMARY:
- Stocks overcome minor selling attempts on the week, post gains along with some new post-bear market highs.
- Still feels as if you have the tiger by the tail, but thus far the tiger has not tried to swat us.
- Gallup puts Unemployment at 19.2% as CBO tells us long-term unemployed still at 40%, where they were in 2009.
- Philly Fed forecasting 30K jobs created in February. Why won’t people hire?
- CPI ‘lighter’ trumpet the headlines, but the core is hot and getting hotter: beware gasoline prices.
- Sticking with what is working but the ranks of quality new plays are growing thinner.
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During the majority of last year, it seemed that all (yes ALL) the news was bad. Greece was surely going to default, which was going to trigger vast unknown quantities of CDS, which, this time, would tank the global banking system, which, in turn, would send us back to the middle ages bartering for goods and services with grains and livestock, and protecting our homes with guns. In a nutshell, the news flow and the macro outlook was a nightmare as no one could imagine anything positive ever happening again.
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